A particularly volatile March rounded out a bumpy 1Q25 for global equity markets, with the MSCI World Net Index returning -4.5% in US dollars (USD) in the month and -1.8% in the quarter (local currency returns of -5% in March and -2.7% in Q1).

This year has certainly been characterised by immense uncertainty in global markets. Global equities declined over the quarter, with the MSCI All Country World Index falling 1.2% and the S&P 500 declining by 4.3%. The primary reason for the downturn can be ascribed to a valuation multiple de-rating in the United States (US), driven by a confidence shock among global investors.

Global equity markets finished 2024 relatively subdued, with the MSCI World Index returning -0.2% in U.S. dollars (USD) and +1.9% in local currency in Q4. Notwithstanding the mild Q4 returns, the index had another remarkable year, delivering +19% in USD and +21% in local currency; a cumulative two-year gain of nearly +50% in USD. U.S. election sentiment drove performance in Q4, with the highly cyclical, growth-tilted sectors leading.

The biggest news for the final quarter of 2024 was Donald Trump winning the US election. Global markets largely tracked sideways over the quarter, however, the election of President Trump was received positively by the US stock market and the S&P 500 gained 2.4% over the period.

In September there was a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.

In September there was a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.

In September we saw a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.

During September, volatility was particularly prevalent at the beginning of the month - in line with During September, volatility was particularly prevalent at the beginning of the month - in line with historical seasonality. historical seasonality.

August was a tale of two halves, starting off on a negative note with the Bloomberg World Index dropping 6.5% in the first few days. One of the catalysts for the negative sentiment was a surprise Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. This caused an unwind of the YEN carry trade. This had been predicated on a weak Yen and relatively low Japanese interest rates and had supported large amounts of Japanese capital moving offshore into foreign equity markets.

August was a tale of two halves, starting off on a negative note with the Bloomberg World Index dropping 6.5% in the first few days. One of the catalysts for the negative sentiment was a surprise Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike. This caused an unwind of the YEN carry trade. This had been predicated on a weak Yen and relatively low Japanese interest rates and had supported large amounts of Japanese capital moving offshore into foreign equity markets.

August was a tale of two halves, starting on a negative note with the Bloomberg World Index dropping 6.5% in the first few days. One of the catalysts for the negative sentiment was a surprise Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.

Global equity and bond markets climbed higher in August predominately supported by relatively dovish monetary policy rhetoric from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, in his speech at Jackson Hole.

July saw many companies report earnings, with aggregate average sales and earnings growth of 4.6% and 11.0%, respectively, for all companies reporting globally.

July saw many companies report earnings, with aggregate average sales and earnings growth of 4.6% and 11.0%, respectively, for all companies reporting globally.

July saw many companies report earnings, with aggregate average sales and earnings growth of 4.6% and 11.0%, respectively, for all companies reporting globally.

Geopolitics continued to be the central theme across the globe as election risk remained in focus.

Geopolitical tensions have been rife across the globe as election risk took centre stage over the month.

In the USA, France, and UK, political transitions are expected following imminent elections. These “lame duck” periods can create uncertainty in markets as outgoing leaders finalise their terms.

In the USA, France, and UK, political transitions are expected following imminent elections. These “lame duck” periods can create uncertainty in markets as outgoing leaders finalise their terms.

In the USA, France, and UK, political transitions are expected following imminent elections. These “lame duck” periods can create uncertainty in markets as outgoing leaders finalise their terms.