Keep your eye on the prize

04 November 2022

When things look uncertain, people look for any clue that offers a glimpse into what the future holds. These days there’s an entire profession dedicated to understanding the future, and futurists around every corner will happily talk to you about which jobs will be redundant in 50 years and how artificial intelligence will reshape (even more) our lives and careers.

The good futurists do this by focusing on signals, mega-trends and patterns, by looking back and learning from history, by taking a systems view of the world, and by adding a touch of psychology to help understand often unpredictable human behaviour.

In short, they combine art and science to navigate tomorrow. Something fund managers and wealth planners have been doing for years.

While it is certainly true that no one can predict the future, it is also true that we can shape our current reality. As the leader of India’s independence movement, Mahatma Gandhi, once observed: “The future depends on what we do in the present.”

Right now the world can seem like a daunting place. Recession fears are swirling, inflation is on the rise and, with a few exceptions, countries are embarking on cycles of interest rate hikes. In our world, this heightens the focus on minimising the volatility of liabilities and finding ways to de-risk investing. We’ve included articles on both of these subjects in this issue, alongside a pragmatic overview of what 2023 has in store for us. Jarred Sullivan’s contribution reiterates our promise to work tirelessly to preserve the invested capital of all our clients, particularly at this challenging time. It’s a promise we take seriously at Ashburton Investments, and one I echo here.

While our CIO’s contribution to this issue of Global Perspectives reaches back in time to draw stark parallels between our evolving global reality and that of the 1970s – from stagflation to inflation and high oil prices – I take heart that in compiling this bumper edition, two articles were submitted with similar working headlines. Both referenced a ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.

One article related to energy reforms in South Africa and the other to the prognosis for the listed property asset class. These are the green shoots that futurists watch for, the indications that something is shifting in the right direction. At a time when bad news seems to dominate, it’s comforting to know that there are still positives out there; and that they are firmly on our radar.

For South Africans, jaded after a year of load- shedding, persistent unemployment, crumbling infrastructure and political maneuvering, there is also hope in Daniel Masvosvere’s observation that the country’s stock market has “been a picture of relative resilience”. Albert Botha and Tlhoni Komako also make mention of how well the rand has held up compared to other currencies during this crisis period.

Make no mistake, the entire world is facing economic fallouts and unpredictability currently. Some, like the United Kingdom, are exacerbating the impact of this global wave with damage of their own making, while others are just trying to hold on. The secret right now - as any good portfolio manager will tell you – is to prepare the ground in the present to nurture new opportunities and growth in the future. So, as tempting as it is to play futurist with your investment portfolio, keep your focus firmly on the present but your eye on the prize.