Negative bias can be damaging to investors’ equity returns, but so too can failing to learn the lessons history shows us by selling out of the market when the going gets tough.
|THE QUICK TAKE
|The FTSE All World Index is now 25% higher than its prior peak, reflecting the returns investors would have missed out on had they panicked and sold out as the market started to crash and not re-invested soon enough once the recovery got underway.
|Increased retail activity in equity markets has been further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic as individuals in many countries have received stimulus cheques and have increased savings due to having fewer activities on which to spend money.
As humans, we are subject to what in psychology is called ‘negative bias’. What does this mean in reality? Well, if you took a trip to the magnificent African bush and had a wonderful time with sightings of the Big Five but also had the misfortune to be stung by a scorpion, then you are more likely to remember the scorpion incident than the other positives of the trip. This is negative bias in action. The reason why we have this psychological tendency is that, as humans, we tend to feel the effects of negative events more strongly than positive ones.
This primal instinct helps to protect us from potential threats. That said, this asymmetric reaction between positive and negative events can be potentially damaging to investment returns when we let the fear of losing money over the shorter term override our longer-term views of equity returns.
If we look at the most recent global market crash brought on by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, it took only six months for stock markets to recover to pre-pandemic levels. As the above graph shows, the FTSE All World Index is now 25% higher than its prior peak, reflecting the returns investors would have missed out on had they panicked and sold out as the market started to crash, and not re-invested soon enough once the recovery got underway.
FTSE ALL WORLD INDEX (JULY 2019 - JULY 2021)
It’s a universal truth of investing that not even the best investors can accurately time markets. It’s not easy to predict exactly how long market crashes will continue their downward spiral or even when and how quickly markets will return to their pre-crash levels. However, what we do know for sure is that for every equity market crash we have encountered since the start of the FTSE All World Index, there has been a full recovery each time. This means that the average return for investors over the past decade would have been 8% per annum in USD had money remained invested through the ups and downs. After all, equity investing is, by its very nature, a long-term project otherwise it’s just speculation.
The best way to avoid the need to jump ship when equity markets get jittery is to make sure you are invested in quality companies that let you sleep well at night, such as the stocks that form part of the Ashburton Global Leaders Equity Fund. These are companies with low debt levels that operate in industries with high barriers to entry, which may even emerge from adverse economic shocks stronger than before as weaker competitors fall away.
LOWER INTEREST RATES CAN LEAD TO RISKY INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic we have seen an unprecedented response from central banks globally, and the use of monetary policy tools to stimulate growth. Although interest rates in developed markets were already very low going into the pandemic, we have seen further cuts and the notion that interest rates will be ‘lower-for-longer’ is now widely accepted.
These stimulus efforts work in part because they encourage more risk-taking and low interest rates are generally very positive for equities for a couple of reasons. Firstly, lower interest rates reduce the discount rate used to value the present value of a company’s future cash flows, thereby increasing the value of the company. Secondly, a company’s future profits are likely to be higher if consumers have more money to spend due to lower interest rates.
However, we need to be aware that investors who are discouraged by the lower returns offered by safer asset classes due to lower interest rates may be taking excessive risks or even fall prey to fraudulent activities as they attempt to achieve higher returns in riskier assets. As indicated below in the accompanying graph, retail traders have been growing their share of United States (US) equity trading volumes continuously since 2019, when the US federal funds rate peaked, and now account for almost as much equity trading volume as the mutual and hedge funds markets combined.
Retail trading now accounts for almost as much volume as mutual funds and hedge funds combined
MARKET SHARE OF OVERALL US EQUITY TRADING VOLUMES (%)
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Financial Times
The lure of stronger equity returns against a backdrop of declining interest rates has no doubt been a factor for this. However, increased retail activity in equity markets has. been further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic as individuals in many countries have received stimulus cheques and have increased savings due to having fewer activities on which to spend money.
Investing in the stock market is clearly not limited to professional investors. There are different levels of sophistication when it comes to retail investors. However, many retail investors may be less inclined to consider the fundamentals of the companies they are investing in and can often trade on speculation gathered on platforms such as social media sites. In addition to this, retail investors tend not to consider the benefits of a diversified portfolio and may make big and leveraged bets (through options as indicated in the chart below) on individual stocks, putting their future savings at risk as the long-term nature of equity investing is less of a consideration.
Retail trading has also sparked an option trading boom
AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME OF US EQUITY OPTIONS TRADED
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Financial Times
(MILLIONS OF CONTRACTS)
For all these reasons, we encourage investors who are looking to achieve higher returns through investing in riskier asset classes (such as equities) to put their money into diversified portfolios, where each individual stock has been chosen for its ability to generate sustainable, compounding returns over the longer term. This requires leaning away from that innate ‘negative bias’ and letting logic and the insights of history pave the way forward.
The Ashburton Global Leaders Equity Fund invests in quality, mega- cap companies which offer exposure to attractive thematic themes of the future such as electrification, technology and healthcare.
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