A particularly volatile March rounded out a bumpy 1Q25 for global equity markets, with the MSCI World Net Index returning -4.5% in US dollars (USD) in the month and -1.8% in the quarter (local currency returns of -5% in March and -2.7% in Q1).

Global equity markets finished 2024 relatively subdued, with the MSCI World Index returning -0.2% in U.S. dollars (USD) and +1.9% in local currency in Q4. Notwithstanding the mild Q4 returns, the index had another remarkable year, delivering +19% in USD and +21% in local currency; a cumulative two-year gain of nearly +50% in USD. U.S. election sentiment drove performance in Q4, with the highly cyclical, growth-tilted sectors leading.

In September we saw a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.

August was a tale of two halves, starting on a negative note with the Bloomberg World Index dropping 6.5% in the first few days. One of the catalysts for the negative sentiment was a surprise Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.

July saw many companies report earnings, with aggregate average sales and earnings growth of 4.6% and 11.0%, respectively, for all companies reporting globally.

In the USA, France, and UK, political transitions are expected following imminent elections. These “lame duck” periods can create uncertainty in markets as outgoing leaders finalise their terms.

Global equity markets rose in May. Overall, the FTSE All World Index gained 4.1% while the Ashburton Global Leaders Fund (I class USD) returned 4.3%. Outperforming stocks held during the month included Nvidia (26.9%), Apple (13%) and Ping An (10.1%).

Economists often use all available time or word count to explain the past, then offer a balanced view of the future. Ideally, investors would focus more on their long-term forecasts, valuations, and views, largely ignoring the near term.

March was another positive month for global equities with the FTSE All-World Index gaining 3.1%. The energy and materials sectors were particularly positive with the equity market rally broadening out from Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks.

February 2024 saw the global equity market continue its recent pattern with share price momentum and companies with higher growth rates providing better performance. Index returns continue to be driven by the narrow number of companies delivering great earnings growth.

Global equity returns continued to be positive in December with the FTSE All World index (USD) climbing +4.8%.

November was a more positive month for equity markets with the FTSE All World Index gaining +9.2%.

The Ashburton Global Leaders Fund increased by 5.2%. Alibaba was the best performing holding increasing 22.6%.

The best-performing holders included both energy service companies Halliburton (+15.7%) and Schlumberger (+15.3%).

After month-end political agreement was reached on the debt ceiling and markets rallied.

Novartis surprised the market with a better than anticipated operational performance and uptake of new products.

The end of year rally of markets came to a halt in December with the final month of the year delivering negative returns. The FTSE All World index declined 3.7%.

Inflation data in the USA was again lower than expected. This resulted in expectations of a reduced pace of monetary tightening from the central banks. With liquidity still abundant, equity markets generally rose. The FTSE All World Index rose 7.9% while, buoyed by Chinese exposures, the Global Leaders fund (I class USD) outperformed gaining 10.4%.

After the 8.2% year on year inflation figure released in the USA mid-month, the US stock market opened sharply lower before producing one of the largest intraday swings in history ending close to 3% higher.

Global equity markets continued to decline in September with the FTSE All World index falling 9.5%, the Global Leaders Fund (I class USD) fell the same amount.