Major factors affecting global markets in 1Q25 included the launch of DeepSeek and President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Chinese startup DeepSeek raised concerns on the amount of capital expenditure being poured into accelerated computing when the Generative AI (GenAI) chatbot matched the capabilities of leading language models, however, it was reportedly created at a much lower cost.

A particularly volatile March rounded out a bumpy 1Q25 for global equity markets, with the MSCI World Net Index returning -4.5% in US dollars (USD) in the month and -1.8% in the quarter (local currency returns of -5% in March and -2.7% in Q1).

This year has certainly been characterised by immense uncertainty in global markets. Global equities declined over the quarter, with the MSCI All Country World Index falling 1.2% and the S&P 500 declining by 4.3%. The primary reason for the downturn can be ascribed to a valuation multiple de-rating in the United States (US), driven by a confidence shock among global investors.

Global equity markets finished 2024 relatively subdued, with the MSCI World Index returning -0.2% in U.S. dollars (USD) and +1.9% in local currency in Q4. Notwithstanding the mild Q4 returns, the index had another remarkable year, delivering +19% in USD and +21% in local currency; a cumulative two-year gain of nearly +50% in USD. U.S. election sentiment drove performance in Q4, with the highly cyclical, growth-tilted sectors leading.

The biggest news for the final quarter of 2024 was Donald Trump winning the US election. Global markets largely tracked sideways over the quarter, however, the election of President Trump was received positively by the US stock market and the S&P 500 gained 2.4% over the period.

In September we saw a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.

In September there was a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.

In September there was a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.

In September we saw a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.

In September we saw a much-anticipated cut in the US Federal Funds rate of 50bps with Federal Reserve Committee minutes mentioning confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target. Outside of the US, China announced a slew of prospective stimulus measures to revitalise their economy.