The third quarter was significant in that it marked the first occasion since the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 that the Fed moved to lower interest rates.
Markets were jolted in May following Tweets by President Donald Trump that the much-anticipated trade deal between the US and China reached an impasse after several months of negotiation. In recent weeks it has become apparent that talks advanced to reach a stage of contention between US and China trade negotiators on various points.
The first quarter of 2019 was a smash hit for bulls. Capitulating central banks, record United States corporate share buybacks flushing the system with artificial liquidity and numerous bouts of monetary and fiscal stimulus from Chinese policymakers have lifted confidence of averting a Chinese hard landing scenario given China’s internal deleveraging and...
The 2019 National Budget Speech delivered by Finance Minister Tito Mboweni had the market somewhat flustered initially, the rand sold-off close to R13.40 to the US dollar. Yields spiked alongside this move, but as Minister Mboweni continued, both settled down somewhat.
The most significant macro event since our last publication has been the speed and extent of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish tilt at its January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
In November last year, we highlighted that attractive valuations in emerging markets (EM) debt markets could allow one to harvest above trend returns in South African Government Bonds (SAGBs) over the coming 12 months.
Last month, we highlighted that attractive valuations in EM debt markets could allow one to harvest above trend returns in South African government bonds (SAGBs) over the coming 12 months.
The fourth quarter of 2018 started with a mix of relief, hope and trepidation. Relief that a difficult time for emerging markets (EM) has passed; hope that risk premia are already high enough; and trepidation around the events in Italy, China and the oil wildcard.
‘En Garde’ for 2017 : US Tax, Fiscal Policy changes & Trade are the Key Themes identified to shape markets and economies in the coming year.
Speculation has quickly spread lately about potential new economic stimulus measures in Japan. This followed the postponement of the next consumption tax hike recently by Abe and government economic stimulus measures that could be on a scale of ¥5 trillion at a minimum.