Archives


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    SA Fixed Income Quarterly Insights

    30 June 2021
    Michael Grobler and Albert Botha

    The combined effects of the powerful cocktail of fiscal and monetary stimulus adopted globally amid the epicentre of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic fallout in March 2020 is still reverberating through financial markets.

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    Some relief for taxpayer and corporations from the budget speech

    26 February 2021
    Michael Grobler

    The 2021 Budget review brought relief to individual taxpayers and corporations as National Treasury scrapped planned tax increases to raise additional R40 billion in revenue that was stated in the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).

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    SA fixed income quarterly insights

    17 December 2020
    Michael Grobler

    Market internals show no evidence of Investor preoccupation with the fraught United States (US) election nor its associated legal battles disputing the free and fairness of the elections held in early November 2020.

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    Fixed Income insights

    17 September 2020
    Michael Grobler

    The local fixed income market has had a tumultuous year as investors strive to navigate between emergency monetary policy accommodation by the SARB and worsening fiscal risks from higher issuance along with collapsing growth adversely impacting on the back end of the yield curve.

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    SA fixed income quarterly insights

    09 July 2020
    Michael Grobler

    As the second quarter of 2020 closed, global policymakers still found themselves in the throes of dealing with high or rising infection rates in many regions - facing a challenging task of gradual reopening of their economies in a post-lockdown paradigm. Governments have opted for fiscal support, running war-like deficits.

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    SA Fixed Income Insights – October 2019

    25 October 2019
    Michael Grobler

    The third quarter was significant in that it marked the first occasion since the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 that the Fed moved to lower interest rates.

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    SA Fixed Income Insights – June 2019

    18 June 2019
    Michael Grobler

    Markets were jolted in May following Tweets by President Donald Trump that the much-anticipated trade deal between the US and China reached an impasse after several months of negotiation. In recent weeks it has become apparent that talks advanced to reach a stage of contention between US and China trade negotiators on various points.

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    Fixed Income Insights

    06 May 2019
    Michael Grobler

    The first quarter of 2019 was a smash hit for bulls. Capitulating central banks, record United States corporate share buybacks flushing the system with artificial liquidity and numerous bouts of monetary and fiscal stimulus from Chinese policymakers have lifted confidence of averting a Chinese hard landing scenario given China’s internal deleveraging and...

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    National budget speech

    21 February 2019
    Michael Grobler

    The 2019 National Budget Speech delivered by Finance Minister Tito Mboweni had the market somewhat flustered initially, the rand sold-off close to R13.40 to the US dollar. Yields spiked alongside this move, but as Minister Mboweni continued, both settled down somewhat.

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    SA Fixed Income Insights – Feb 2019

    18 February 2019
    Michael Grobler

    The most significant macro event since our last publication has been the speed and extent of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish tilt at its January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

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    SA Fixed Income Insights - Core views based on December insights

    17 January 2019
    Michael Grobler

    In November last year, we highlighted that attractive valuations in emerging markets (EM) debt markets could allow one to harvest above trend returns in South African Government Bonds (SAGBs) over the coming 12 months.

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    SA Fixed Income insights – December 2018

    06 December 2018
    Michael Grobler

    Last month, we highlighted that attractive valuations in EM debt markets could allow one to harvest above trend returns in South African government bonds (SAGBs) over the coming 12 months.

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    Benchmarking trump assumptions

    13 January 2017
    Michael Grobler

    ‘En Garde’ for 2017 : US Tax, Fiscal Policy changes & Trade are the Key Themes identified to shape markets and economies in the coming year.

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    Could a 'helicopter drop' be the next Act?

    24 June 2016
    Michael Grobler

    Speculation has quickly spread lately about potential new economic stimulus measures in Japan. This followed the postponement of the next consumption tax hike recently by Abe and government economic stimulus measures that could be on a scale of ¥5 trillion at a minimum.